Earlier this year, several institutions gave the national new PV installation 75GW +, the global new PV installation 220GW + market expectations, an important basis is 2022, silicon supply (domestic production + overseas imports) is expected to reach 850,000 tons. According to Sobi PV net calculations, these silicon materials are expected to meet nearly 300GW module production. Especially in the fourth quarter, a single quarter supply of more than 300,000 tons, when silicon prices may appear more substantial decline.
But the first month of the year, the upstream price increase behavior apparently let everyone surprised. According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Branch statistics, over the past four weeks, prices of different grades of silicon have risen by nearly 10,000 yuan per ton. At the same time, just in January, Longi, Central two leading enterprises of silicon wafers were two rounds of price increases, the rate of increase far more than the cost of silicon material price increases. Among them, 166 wafer prices rose by a cumulative maximum of 8.16%, 182 wafers rose by a cumulative maximum of 12.28%, 210 wafers rose by a cumulative 11.04%.
A number of industry experts said that the reason for this situation is that the end of the domestic and foreign terminal demand, combined with the Spring Festival holiday some manufacturers to increase inventory, as shown by the battery, module enterprises to enhance the willingness to purchase, silicon wafer enterprises to take advantage of the opportunity to increase prices. “In fact, the silicon wafer link overcapacity is more serious than the battery, module, beyond the global terminal demand of about double. Silicon wafer prices are expected to be difficult to maintain at the current level for a long time, and price cuts are the general trend. It is recommended that the relevant enterprises in each segment reasonably control their inventories to ensure subsequent profit margins.”
Silicon material needs to be reduced to 180,000 yuan/ton to ensure market demand throughout the year
According to Sobi Consulting statistics, in December 2021, the top five silicon enterprises produced 41,400 tons in total, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 112.6%. In terms of silicon wafers, the two head enterprises’ start-up rate returned to more than 50%, and the integrated enterprises’ start-up rate was relatively high. In December last year, domestic silicon wafer production was 17.85GW, down 8.6% YoY. According to the production ranking, Longi, JinkoSolar, Zhonghuan, Shangji and JA ranked in the top five, with a total production of 12.35GW, accounting for 69.19% and an integrated utilization rate of 67.81%. Although there is a view that the actual capacity utilization rate of Zhonghuan is higher than the above data, the overall view is that the high prices in the upstream of the industry chain have affected the terminal demand and counteracted the upstream.
It is revealed that a few days ago there have been a number of power investment enterprises began to readjust the layout of new energy projects in 2022, more choice of wind power to complete the renewable energy investment requirements. In this regard, a number of senior practitioners told Sobi PV network, behind this decision, there are local government “resources for industry” requirements under the helpless, there are land rent, tax costs (including subsequent taxation may) concerns, there are annual utilization hours, the number of hours of trading calculations, but also the cost of photovoltaic systems in 2022 can not be reduced to The expected level of concern. “According to the 6.5% annualized rate of return measurement, in a class I resource area, the overall cost of PV system with energy storage shall not exceed 4.5 yuan / W, the PV itself can not exceed the cost of 4 yuan / W, component purchase price is best controlled at 1.8 yuan / W or less.”
How about the actual purchase price? According to the PV price index released by Sobi Consulting before the Chinese New Year, the average price of monocrystalline 166 double-sided modules purchased by ground power station projects in January reached 1.84 yuan / W, 182, 210 double-sided modules reached 1.86 yuan / W and 1.88 yuan / W. At the same time, some analysts pointed out that, due to the domestic 2022 collection of bids from various enterprises have been launched, overseas, especially India, Europe and other The market appears stocking demand, February component transaction prices may have a small increase. “If the first half of the silicon price can not drop to 180,000 yuan / ton, the domestic H1 new installed capacity may not meet expectations, which means that the end demand are piled up to the second half of the year, is not conducive to a steady decline in prices.”
What to solve the problem, the only way to reduce prices. Only upstream to further release capacity, lower prices, in order to fully open the PV market demand, revitalize the entire industry chain, especially so that new production capacity has a place to use, to avoid a massive surplus. According to the above analysts predictions, the first half of this year, silicon prices down to 180,000 yuan / ton, in the case of unchanged profit distribution of the links, component prices can be lower than the current 0.13-0.15 yuan / W. Considering that the market share of large-size components in 2022 will have a further increase, which is conducive to reducing system costs and improve project revenue, which means that more PV projects can be the level of yield Meet the internal requirements of central and state-owned enterprises, and can be implemented on the ground. This means that more PV projects can meet the internal requirements of central and state-owned enterprises and can be implemented.