According to Sobi Consulting statistics, in December 2021, the top five silicon enterprises produced 41,400 tons in total, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 112.6%. In terms of silicon wafers, the two head enterprises’ start-up rate returned to more than 50%, and the integrated enterprises’ start-up rate was relatively high. In December last year, domestic silicon wafer production was 17.85GW, down 8.6% YoY. According to the production ranking, Longi, JinkoSolar, Zhonghuan, Shangji and JA ranked in the top five, with a total production of 12.35GW, accounting for 69.19% and an integrated utilization rate of 67.81%. Although there is a view that the actual capacity utilization rate of Zhonghuan is higher than the above data, the overall view is that the high prices in the upstream of the industry chain have affected the terminal demand and counteracted the upstream.
It is revealed that a few days ago there have been a number of power investment enterprises began to readjust the layout of new energy projects in 2022, more choice of wind power to complete the renewable energy investment requirements. In this regard, a number of senior practitioners told Sobi PV network, behind this decision, there are local government “resources for industry” requirements under the helpless, there are land rent, tax costs (including subsequent taxation may) concerns, there are annual utilization hours, the number of hours of trading calculations, but also the cost of photovoltaic systems in 2022 can not be reduced to The expected level of concern. “According to the 6.5% annualized rate of return measurement, in a class I resource area, the overall cost of PV system with energy storage shall not exceed 4.5 yuan / W, the PV itself can not exceed the cost of 4 yuan / W, component purchase price is best controlled at 1.8 yuan / W or less.”
How about the actual purchase price? According to the PV price index released by Sobi Consulting before the Chinese New Year, the average price of monocrystalline 166 double-sided modules purchased by ground power station projects in January reached 1.84 yuan / W, 182, 210 double-sided modules reached 1.86 yuan / W and 1.88 yuan / W. At the same time, some analysts pointed out that, due to the domestic 2022 collection of bids from various enterprises have been launched, overseas, especially India, Europe and other The market appears stocking demand, February component transaction prices may have a small increase. “If the first half of the silicon price can not drop to 180,000 yuan / ton, the domestic H1 new installed capacity may not meet expectations, which means that the end demand are piled up to the second half of the year, is not conducive to a steady decline in prices.”
What to solve the problem, the only way to reduce prices. Only upstream to further release capacity, lower prices, in order to fully open the PV market demand, revitalize the entire industry chain, especially so that new production capacity has a place to use, to avoid a massive surplus. According to the above analysts predictions, the first half of this year, silicon prices down to 180,000 yuan / ton, in the case of unchanged profit distribution of the links, component prices can be lower than the current 0.13-0.15 yuan / W. Considering that the market share of large-size components in 2022 will have a further increase, which is conducive to reducing system costs and improve project revenue, which means that more PV projects can be the level of yield Meet the internal requirements of central and state-owned enterprises, and can be implemented on the ground. This means that more PV projects can meet the internal requirements of central and state-owned enterprises and can be implemented.